An Empirical Model of Perceived Mortality Risks for Selected U.S. Arsenic Hot Spots

Researchers have long recognized that subjective perceptions of risk are better predictors of choices over risky outcomes than science‐based or experts’ assessments of risk. More recent work suggests that uncertainty about risks also plays a role in predicting choices and behavior. In this article, we develop and estimate a formal model for an individual's perceived health risks associated with arsenic contamination of his or her drinking water. The modeling approach treats risk as a random variable, with an estimable probability distribution whose variance reflects uncertainty. The model we estimate uses data collected from a survey given to a sample of people living in arsenic‐prone areas in the United States. The findings from this article support the fact that scientific information is essential to explaining the mortality rate perceived by the individuals, but uncertainty about the probability remains significant.     

浅析现代资本市场体系下的保险资金

本文对现代资本市场体系下的保险资金进行了分析，首先分析了保险资金的构成，接着对保险资金和资本市场的相互关系进行了考察，并分析了当前保险资金运用的现状，最后提出了对当前保险资金运用的思考。     

Ensuring units invariant slack selection in radial data envelopment analysis models,and incorporating slacks into an overall efficiency score

This paper introduces a new methodology ensuring units invariant slack selection in radial DEA models and incorporating the slacks into an overall efficiency score. The CCR and BCC models are units invariant in their radial component, but not in their slack component, thus changing the units of measurement of one or more variables can change the models' solution. The proposed Full Proportional Slack (FPS) methodology improves the slack selections of the CCR and BCC models by producing slack selections that (a) are units invariant, thus producing fully units invariant models, (b) maximize the relative improvements represented by the slacks, and not their values, and (c) measure the full slacks that need to be removed from their corresponding variables. The FPS methodology is a fully oriented methodology first maximizing the improvements in the variables on the side of the orientation of the model. The Proportional Slack Adjusted (PSA) methodology incorporates the FPS slacks into an overall efficiency score, making it easier to interpret and use the results. The FPS and PSA methodologies are illustrated using an input oriented VRS Loan Quality DEA model with data from the retail branch network of one of Canada's largest banks.     

A decomposition technique for quantifying real process performance

A decomposition technique for quantifying the impacts of changes in product mix and process performance on aggregate process-related indicators is presented. Through application of the technique, the real performance of a process can be quantified. Changes in real performance over time can be monitored to provide useful information for process evaluation and production planning. Two case studies, one related to the aggregate defective rate for an assembly line of an integrated circuit fabrication plant and the other to the aggregate inventory turnover for a tyre distribution company, are presented to illustrate the application of the technique.     

To Leave an Area After Disaster: How Evacuees from the WTC Buildings Left the WTC Area Following the Attacks

How people leave a devastated area after a disaster is critical to understanding their ability to cope with risks they face while evacuating. Knowledge of their needs for communications about these risks is particularly crucial in planning for emergency responses. A convenience sample of 1,444 persons who survived the World Trade Center (WTC) attacks on September 11, 2001 were surveyed to ascertain their initial and ultimate destinations once they had left the buildings, how they arrived there, the role of types of obstacles they encountered, and the need for information and the seeking of other people as potential factors in influencing the process of leaving immediately. This survey was part of a larger, original survey. Results showed differences in how people traveled by mode to initial and ultimate destinations, how immediately they left the area, and factors associated with when they left. How they traveled and when they left were associated with where people lived, their tendency in times of stress to seek out other people including who they knew in the immediate area (e.g., co‐workers or friends), the physical conditions surrounding them, and the importance to some of waiting for more information. Many people indicated they did not leave immediately because they had no information about where to go or what services would be available to them. Perceptions and communications about risks they were facing were reflected in the choices they considered in how and when to leave the area. These findings have numerous ramifications for understanding and guiding personal behavior in catastrophic situations.     

锚定比率可以衡量股价高估吗？——基于崩盘风险视角的经验证据

股价高估指的是公司市场价值超出其内在价值的现象,但如何衡量内在价值一直存在争议。借鉴行为金融文献中锚定效应的概念,结合中国资本市场的特殊性,本文提出了锚定比率(简称"RPR")这一新的股价高估指标。为了证实该指标的有效性,本文利用事后的股价崩盘风险进行了相关检验。结果表明:第一,锚定比率与股价崩盘风险正相关;第二,更少的分析师跟踪、更多的散户持股以及更高的股票流动性均会强化锚定比率对股价崩盘风险的影响;第三,在控制常用的股价高估指标、两类代理问题和管理层"捂盘"行为后,本文的结果依然成立;第四,利用崩盘事件,本文证实了锚定比率会加剧股价下跌的程度,且长期来看股价会保持"惯性"而非"反转"。本文的研究表明投资者做决策时对股价高点存在明显的锚定效应,丰富了锚定效应在中国资本市场中的运用。更重要的是,本文提出了一个可能更适合于中国资本市场的股价高估指标,该指标意味着资本市场定价机制的不完善是导致股价高估和频繁崩盘的重要原因,这对于改善资本市场定价效率、降低股价崩盘风险有一定的启示作用。     

多部件采购外包的两阶段均衡投标策略

本文考虑一个由单个制造商和多个供应商群体组成的供应链——该制造商需要采购多个部件,对于每个部件在市场上均存在多个供应商。不同于传统的从各供应商群体分别采购各个部件,制造商考虑将所有部件的采购整体外包给某个供应商。在第一阶段,制造商使用一级价格密封投标的逆向拍卖来确定赢得整体采购合约的供应商。接下来,第一阶段投标的获胜者生产其所能供应的部件,并使用逆向拍卖向第一阶段中未获胜的其他竞标者采购其余部件。我们分析了供应商在两个阶段的均衡竞价策略,并比较了制造商在亲自逐件采购和外包整体采购两种情况下的期望采购成本。我们证明了在两种机制下制造商的总的期望采购成本相等。     

机构投资者持股与上市公司违规行为的实证研究

本文采用部分可观测的Bivariate Probit估计方法,对2001年至2009年中国1729家上市公司进行回归检验,发现机构投资者持股比例降低了公司违规行为倾向,同时增加了公司违规行为被稽查的可能性。该结论在控制了机构投资者变量内生性的因素后仍旧稳健。进一步研究表明,相比公司经营违规,机构投资者对信息披露违规倾向的影响更强。另外,相比证券机构投资者,养老保险基金、社保基金、企业年金持股的公司中违规公司比例更低。除此以外,机构投资者对公司违规的抑制与检举作用并不受其它公司治理变量的影响。本文的研究表明中国机构投资者在预防与打击上市公司违规行为方面发挥了重要的作用,并且也为上市公司与监管部门提供了治理和防范企业违规的线索。     

拒绝职场边缘化:模型与检验

初入职场,大学生员工希望被组织接纳而不是被边缘化。本文试图建模表现在如同"政治舞台"的职场中员工努力避免被边缘化的过程。为达到以上研究目标,执行了两项研究:预研究在国务院11个部委机关的公务员群体中收集数据,开发了职场边缘化的测量工具;主研究对16家制造型企业中的343个员工、662个同事及343个直接领导的配对数据进行实证分析,发现员工工作绩效、公民行为以及与上司的私人关系(Guanxi)与职场边缘化之间呈负向关联。相对而言,在政治氛围淡漠的企业中,上司关系与职场边缘化之间的负向关联更强。